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Athens, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Darius Miller scored a game-high 19 points off the bench Tuesday night, and No. 1 Kentucky began its second stint as the country's top-ranked team with a 57-44 win over Georgia. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist added 14 points for the Wildcats (20-1, 6-0 SEC), who have won 12 straight games since a last-second loss at Indiana on December 10, which ended their initial two-week stay atop the AP poll.
Winston-Salem, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 23rd-ranked Florida State Seminoles are back at it tonight as they head to Lawrence Joel Coliseum for an Atlantic Coast Conference battle with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. This will be the 43rd meeting in the all-time series. The Demon Deacons hold a 23-19 edge in the advantage coming into tonight despite Florida State winning the last three encounters.
Wake Forest enters tonight's game 11-8 overall and 2-3 in ACC play after its 71-56 victory over the Boston College Eagles on Saturday. The Demon Deacons interior play was impressive in the contest as they blocked 10 shots, won the rebounding battle 42-37, and outscored the Eagles, 40-24, in the paint. Head coach Jeff Bzdelik's team will have to improve on the defensive end if it wants to make a run in the ACC, as it ranks last in the league with an allowed average of 69.7 ppg.
The Demon Deacons are led by the ACC's top scoring duo C.J. Harris and Travis McKie. Harris is ranked third in the conference in scoring with 17.3 ppg and McKie is a very close fourth with an average of 17.2 ppg. McKie is also leading the team in rebounding with an average of 6.7 rpg after his 20-point, 10-rebound performance against Boston College. Harris chipped in 15 points and five assists in the win over the Eagles. Tony Chennault is a very good third option. The sophomore point guard is netting 10.6 ppg and had six assists with just one turnover his last time out.
The Bluejays are off to a 18-2 start this season after handling Indiana State 75-49 on Saturday. The Bluejays shot 43.6 percent from the floor and connected on 11-of-24 attempts from long range in the contest. Head coach Greg McDermott has his team playing very well both at home and on the road this year. If the Bluejays win tonight, they will have won six-straight road games for the first time in program history since 1975. Creighton is ranked first in the nation in field goal percentage (51.4) and second in assists (19.2). The Bluejays 81.4 ppg on the offensive end is the best in the MVC this year.
The Bulldogs have won two in a row at home and 13 of their last 14 at the Knapp Center coming into tonight. However, Drake had its four-game winning streak snapped its last time out as it fell 66-52 at Northern Iowa. The Bulldogs struggled from the floor, making 38.2 percent of their field goals in the loss. Head coach Mark Phelps has led the team to a 12-8 overall record and a 5-4 mark in MVC play. Drake is tied for third in the conference coming into this one. The Bulldogs are scoring 68.3 ppg while allowing opponents to net 67.3 ppg.
The Nittany Lions come into play with heavy hearts, as the university mourns the death of Penn State Hall of Fame coach Joe Paterno. Patrick Chambers' squad will be wearing black arm bands in memory of Paterno and enters Wednesday's action following a loss at nationally-ranked Indiana (73-54). The setback was the fourth in the last five games for PSU, which now sits at a dismal 2-6 in league play.
Penn State led 29-27 at the half in Bloomington, but Indiana came roaring back in the second half, hitting 65 percent from the floor in posting a 19-point win over the Nittany Lions. Tim Frazier once again led the way offensively, netting 21 points, on 7-of-18 shooting. Nick Colella added 11 points off the bench, but PSU managed a mere 22.7 percent shooting accuracy in the second half, hitting just five field goals over the final 20 minutes of action. It has been a lot of the same all season long for Penn State, which has a prolific scorer in Frazier, but little else behind him. Frazier is performing at an All-American level this season, averaging 18.0 points and 6.4 assists per game. Unfortunately, there isn't much offensive support, as Jermaine Marshall represents the next highest scorer at just 9.8 ppg.
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The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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